Next Governing Mayor of Berlin: Polymarket Odds, Polls & Coalition Analysis
Elif Eralp leads Polymarket, but Stefan Evers’ CDU tops the latest Berlin poll. Coalition bargaining after September 20 remains the decisive variable.
Read MoreElif Eralp leads Polymarket, but Stefan Evers’ CDU tops the latest Berlin poll. Coalition bargaining after September 20 remains the decisive variable.
Read MoreNVIDIA currently holds a substantial market-cap lead over Apple and Alphabet. PredictBoy still makes NVIDIA the favorite for Dec. 31, 2026, but gives Apple and Alphabet more combined upset probability than the market.
Read MoreEthereum is trading near $2,500 after reclaiming a key technical level. PredictBoy compares Polymarket’s September upside and downside thresholds with realized volatility, ETF flows and major U.S. macro catalysts.
Read MoreAfD remains the favorite to win the most seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, but SPD has closed sharply in the latest poll. PredictBoy puts AfD at 68% and SPD at 31%, materially tighter than Polymarket’s current 79% vs 23% display.
Read MorePolymarket strongly favors 2026 becoming the hottest year on record. PredictBoy agrees that first place is the most likely outcome, but assigns more second-place risk because NASA’s Jan–Jul path still requires an exceptionally hot Aug–Dec finish.
Read MorePolymarket overwhelmingly prices a 25-basis-point Bank of Japan hike in September. PredictBoy also makes a hike the base case, but assigns more hold risk because current CPI is below 2% and household spending remains weak.
Read MorePolymarket gives official U.S. confirmation of extraterrestrial life only a small chance before 2027. PredictBoy examines what would actually count, what current agencies say, and the remaining disclosure catalysts.
Read MorePolymarket gives zero Fed cuts in 2026 an overwhelming lead. PredictBoy agrees that no cuts are the base case, but leaves a larger tail for one late-year cut if disinflation or labor weakness accelerates.
Read MoreBitcoin is trading near $81,000 after a sharp rally, leaving both $85K upside and $75K downside thresholds in play. PredictBoy compares Polymarket odds with volatility, technical levels, ETF flows and September Fed risk.
Read MorePolymarket currently leans toward a Democratic sweep, but the Senate remains structurally harder for Democrats than the House. PredictBoy’s framework gives a slight edge to a Democratic House with a Republican Senate.
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