Learn Prediction Markets
Learn Prediction Markets
Build the concepts in the right order: understand the question, then the contract, then the price, then market quality, and finally resolution and risk. This hub is designed to help beginners move from “What does 62% mean?” to reading a market with much better context.
Your learning path
Understand what a prediction market is
Learn how a future event becomes a tradable contract and why contract wording matters.
Learn to read market-implied probability
In many binary markets, a price such as 62¢ is commonly interpreted as roughly 62% market-implied probability under the contract structure. It is a price signal, not certainty.
Add liquidity, spread and volume
Ask what price you could actually trade at and how much market depth sits behind the headline number.
Read the resolution rules
Understand exactly what must happen, by what deadline and according to which source for the market to settle.
Understand fees, access and risk
Mechanics differ by platform. Check current costs, eligibility, custody, settlement and product-specific risk before taking action.
Five ideas every beginner should know
Market question
The exact event, condition and deadline being traded. Small wording differences can change settlement.
Implied probability
A probability suggested by market pricing under the relevant payout structure—not a promise about the future.
Liquidity
How readily positions can be bought or sold without a large change in price.
Spread
The gap between the best available bid and ask, which can make execution different from the headline price.
Resolution
The process used to determine the official outcome under the published market rules.
Risk
The possibility of loss, bad execution, rule ambiguity, platform issues, fees, regulatory limits and other adverse outcomes.
A practical checklist before trusting the number on screen
- Read the exact question. What must happen, and before what deadline?
- Read the resolution criteria. Which official source or procedure controls settlement?
- Identify the contract type. Binary, multi-outcome, range or another structure?
- Check bid and ask. Can you actually trade near the displayed number?
- Check liquidity and recent volume. Is the market deep or thin?
- Understand the costs. Trading fees, spreads, deposits, withdrawals, gas or other charges may apply.
- Check access and eligibility. Product availability varies by platform and jurisdiction.
- Separate price from certainty. A market can be wrong.
Where should you go next?
I’m confused by the terminology
Use the A–Z glossary for short definitions of YES, NO, bid, ask, liquidity, spread, oracle, settlement and more.
I want the full mechanics
Follow a market from question creation to trading, price interpretation, resolution and payout.
I want to evaluate a platform
Platform guides focus on access, mechanics, fees, providers, settlement and limitations rather than only promotional features.
I want to understand PredictFact analysis
See how market rules, primary sources, evidence weighting and uncertainty fit into the editorial process.
Learning the mechanics does not remove the risk
Prediction-market products can involve financial loss. Market prices can move quickly, liquidity can be poor, rules can be complex and access can vary by jurisdiction. Use the Risk Disclosure as a companion to the educational guides.
Understand the risk layer
Loss, liquidity, spread, resolution, platform, blockchain and jurisdiction risks.