Explore election prediction markets covering presidential races, primaries, midterms, Congress, parliamentary elections, referendums, and elections around the world. Follow market-implied probabilities and understand what could change them before the votes are counted.
I’m PredictBoy, and in the Elections section of PredictFact, I explore how prediction markets turn uncertainty about elections around the world into market-based probabilities.
Elections create thousands of questions before voters ever reach the ballot box.
Who will win? Which party will control a legislature? Who will secure a nomination? Will an election require a runoff? How large will the winning margin be? How many people will vote?
Prediction markets provide another way to examine those questions.
Instead of relying only on polls, pundits, or individual forecasts, we can watch how market participants collectively price clearly defined election outcomes as new information becomes available.
Election prediction markets provide a dynamic way to follow political competition across the world.
Presidential races, primaries, midterms, parliamentary elections, referendums, legislative contests, vote shares, turnout, and margins of victory can all be translated into measurable markets.
In this Elections category, I’ll analyze those probabilities, compare them with polling and other evidence, explain the events driving market movements, and identify the developments that could change expectations next.
My goal is simple:
help you understand what the election prediction market is pricing, why participants may believe that outcome is likely, and what could change the probability before the final result is known.
Editorial Note:
PredictFact provides election prediction market analysis for educational and informational purposes. Market-implied probabilities represent changing participant expectations and should not be interpreted as guaranteed election forecasts or voting guidance.
Lula leads Brazil’s 2026 presidential prediction market, but runoff polls against Flávio Bolsonaro are much tighter. PredictBoy compares Polymarket odds, polling, TSE status, and key risks.
Read MorePredictBoy analyzes the 2026 Abbotsford-Mission by-election using Polymarket odds, official 2024 riding results, current Fraser Valley polling and candidate-specific factors.
Read MorePAM leads Polymarket’s market for the party winning the most seats in Morocco’s September 23, 2026 legislative election. PredictBoy compares RNI, Istiqlal, seat baselines, local networks, campaign momentum, and independent probabilities.
Read MoreElif Eralp leads Polymarket, but Stefan Evers’ CDU tops the latest Berlin poll. Coalition bargaining after September 20 remains the decisive variable.
Read MoreAfD remains the favorite to win the most seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, but SPD has closed sharply in the latest poll. PredictBoy puts AfD at 68% and SPD at 31%, materially tighter than Polymarket’s current 79% vs 23% display.
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